Reply #59: this is helpful, but let's interpret it

[OnTheOtherHand]

Of these 1597 ballots, 203 are matched in this study as registered before the deadline; 1255 as having registered after the deadline (1105 of them on 11/17 through 11/19) ; and 139 as not registered.

It seems likely that those are processing dates, and that many or most of these people attempted to register on time or almost on time. We would need to know more. How many of these were received after the deadline (and what exactly does Ohio law say about applications received after the deadline)? How many were received before the deadline and sat in cardboard boxes, or whatever? People who register to vote should be able to vote and have their votes counted.

As you know, it isn't very meaningful to refer to Franklin County as "1 out of 88" counties because it is one of the largest counties, contributing 9-10% of the 2004 vote. Statewide, over 123,000 provisional ballots were counted, and a bit over 35,000 weren't. I'd say that if we extrapolate from the Cuyahoga provisional ballot study and squint, maybe 3/4 of those were Kerry votes, which nets Kerry 17K or 18K votes.