Reply #61: Febble, one more thing...

[TruthIsAll]

This is what it would take for Bush to TIE Kerry.

Bush would need 100% of his 2000 voters to turnout while only
78.4% of Gore voters turn out. For any greater Gore turnout,
Bush would lose.

Of course that means there would have to be 25.63% of NEW
voters as a percent of the total 122.3mm.

And we know Kerry won the NEW voters. 
All the timelines say so, even the bogus final 13660 (54%).

I use the vote percentages from the 13047 timeline because
they make more sense:

	MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	25.63%	41%	57%	2%	10.5%	14.6%	0.5%
Gore	31.55%	8%	91%	1%	2.5%	28.7%	0.3%
Bush	39.82%	90%	10%	0%	35.8%	4.0%	0.0%
Other	3.00%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				49.26%	49.25%	1.31%
	total				60.25	60.23	1.60




But I know you would prefer to see the calculation done for
the 13660 Final which was matched to the Bush vote.

S lets look at the breakeven for a Kerry 54% share of NEW
voters:

	MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	23.18%	45%	54%	2%	10.4%	12.5%	0.5%
Gore	34.00%	8%	91%	1%	2.7%	30.9%	0.3%
Bush	39.82%	90%	10%	0%	35.8%	4.0%	0.0%
Other	3.00%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				49.38%	49.39%	1.28%
	total				60.39	60.40	1.57

Bush would need a maximum of 34% for Gore voters to TIE.
For any larger turnout of Gore voters, Bush loses.