Reply #35: Here is why I think the rBr/rKr hypothesis is worth considering.

[kiwi_expat]

First of all let's remember that the so-called "rBr" is actually %Bush-Refusals minus %Kerry-Refusals: a net which could be positive, negative, or zero. There is more than a 50% refusal rate, overall.

I can only discuss Ohio, because I have not looked at the situation in any other state.

I re-visited the rBr hypothesis after the Democratic poll observers for the Hamilton County precinct, Cincinnati 4-M, reported that large numbers of "repub types" were ignoring the NEP interviewer.

The interviewer at Cincy4M was inexperienced and quite discouraged, according to the observers. He might even have gone home early. The problem was that he was required to stand 100ft. away from the poll - where the various campaigners were standing. (The voters were not coming out in an orderly single-file. They were fanning out in all directions from the polling place door.) It was pouring rain and he didn't have an umbrella. After about 4 o'clock it was getting dark, as well. His NEP button would not have been very visible after that.

According to the official results, 1754 people came out of that polling place. He only managed to sample 31 of them. (NEP said that its target was 100 samples per polling place.) His raw responses showed a Kerry 68% win. The canvass results showed a 46% Kerry result for the entire polling place and a 40% Kerry result for Cincy4M, itself.

Are there certain types of people who are more likely to ignore an inexperienced (timid) person - who looks like he is probably a campaigner - trying to stop them in the pouring rain? The answer is almost certainly Yes.

The question here is, are those types of people, as a group, slightly more Bush supporters than Kerry supporters? I think it is quite possible that the answer is yes. (Perhaps I am biased, but I think that Republicans, as a group, tend to be ruder.)

Under more favorable conditions, those people might not ignore an interviewer. Especially an experienced one.


The fact that E/M presented this hypothesis after the fact does not automatically make it incorrect. I don't know about other states, but thanks to Blackwell, the 2004 NEP interviewing situation in Ohio was far worse than it has ever been before.


Cheers.