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Reply #16: Clearly impossible because..New Voters comprised 17% [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-11-05 02:43 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Clearly impossible because..New Voters comprised 17%
Edited on Wed May-11-05 03:15 PM by TruthIsAll
of the total electorate in 2004, according to all timelines for the National Exit poll (11027,13047,13660 respondents).

Adding 3 million New voters to the 21.15mm in the poll (17.3% of 122mm) is a 14% increase. That means that since we know exactly 122.2 million voted in 2004, there had to be 3 million FEWER Gore+Bush + Nader voters returning to vote in 2004. But the MoE is only 1.77% for the 3168 respondents in the How Voted category.

At the 95% Confidence level, there is a 95% probability that the actual number of New voters is between 20.77mm - 21.52mm.

To put it another way, there is a 97.5% probability that the actual number of New Voters is UNDER 21.52 million

There is no way that there could have been 24 million new voters.
We just proved it.


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