OK, LET'S ASSUME THERE WAS THIS BUSH BANDWAGON EFFECT...
We know that that the "Voted in 2000" Bush/Gore mix
of 43/37% was impossible, so maybe the respondents
exaggerated.
CNN Final Exit Poll
2:05pm Nov.3 13660 Respondents
NEP/WP Preliminary Exit Poll
12:22am Nov.3, 13047 Respondents
CNN Preliminary Exit Poll
7:38pm Nov.3, 11027 Respondents
Exhibit I: Final Exit poll -13660 respondents
VOTED 2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader Total
No 17% 45% 54% 1% 100.0%
Gore 37% 10% 90% 0% 100.0%
Bush 43% 91% 9% 0% 100.0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 8% 100.0%
100% 51.11% 48.48% 0.41% 100.0%
How many Bush voters jumped on the bandwagon:
Was it really 41%?, not 43%?
VOTED 2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1% 100.0%
Gore 39% 10% 90% 0% 100.0%
Bush 41% 91% 9% 0% 100.0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 8% 100.0%
100% 49.49% 50.10% 0.41% 100.0%
How many Gore 2000 voters lied about voting for Bush:
Was it really 8%, not 10%?
VOTED 2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1% 100.0%
Gore 39% 8% 92% 0% 100.0%
Bush 41% 91% 9% 0% 100.0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 8% 100.0%
100% 48.71% 50.88% 0.41% 100.0%
How many New Voters lied about voting for Bush:
Was it really 41%, not 45%?
VOTED 2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 41% 57% 2% 100.0%
Gore 39% 8% 92% 0% 100.0%
Bush 41% 91% 9% 0% 100.0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 8% 100.0%
100% 48.03% 51.39% 0.58% 100.0%
Then maybe the preliminary exit poll of 13047 was right.
Kerry really did win, after all.
EXHIBIT II: Final Exit poll -13660 respondents
PARTY ID Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 37% 11% 89% 0 100.0%
Repub 37% 93% 6% 1% 100.0%
Indep 26% 48% 49% 3% 100.0%
100% 50.96% 47.89% 1.15% 100.0%
How many Dems lied about voting for Bush?
Was it really 9%?, not 11%?
PARTY ID Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 37% 9% 90% 1% 100.0%
Repub 37% 93% 6% 1% 100.0%
Indep 26% 48% 49% 3% 100.0%
100% 50.22% 48.26% 1.52% 100.0%
How many Indies lied about voting for Bush?
Was it really 45%?, not 48%?
PARTY ID Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 37% 9% 90% 1% 100.0%
Repub 37% 93% 6% 1% 100.0%
Indep 26% 45% 52% 3% 100.0%
100% 49.44% 49.04% 1.52% 100.0%
How many Repubs lied about voting for Bush?
Was it really 92%?, not 93%?
PARTY ID Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 37% 9% 90% 1% 100.0%
Repub 37% 92% 7% 1% 100.0%
Indep 26% 45% 52% 3% 100.0%
100% 49.07% 49.41% 1.52% 100.0%
How many Repubs lied about Party ID?
Was it really 35%?, not 37%?
PARTY ID Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 38% 9% 90% 1% 100.0%
Repub 35% 92% 7% 1% 100.0%
Indep 27% 45% 52% 3% 100.0%
100% 47.77% 50.69% 1.54% 100.0%
Then maybe the preliminary exit poll of 13047 was right.
Kerry really did win, after all.