Reply #13: Clarification of what the data represents...

[TruthIsAll]

1. Preliminary (13047) 2004 National Exit Poll percent deviations from the Final 2000 Poll (not shown).

2. Final (13660) 2004 exit poll deviations from the Final 2000 Poll.

3. Final 2000 Exit Poll Deviations from the Preliminary.

The first column in each set represnts the change in the demographic weighting mix. These are significant if they have changed from 2000 to the preliminary or from the preliminary to final.

For example, Party ID was:
39/35/26 in the 2000 final.
38/35/25 in the 2004 prelim. The changes were -1%/0%/+1%.
37/37/26 in the 2004 final. The changes were -1%/+2%/-1%.

There was no change in the Gender mix in 2004 from 2000: 54% female/ 46% male.

The next three columns represent changes in vote share for Bush, Kerry, Nader (other).

The Kerry 13047 prelim. poll percentage of the female vote was equal to the 54% Gore 2000 share, but it dropped from 54-45% to 51-48% in the Final, or -3% for Kerry, +3% for Bush.