Reply #8: Some clues...

[TruthIsAll]

The odds shown are the chances that Bush's percentage would
increase from the poll result to 50.73% of the vote.


Prelim. 11027 
7:38pm 				

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Total
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Republican 	36%	92%	7%	1%	100.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	2%	99.0%
	      100%	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%	99.7%
	Odds 1 in	1,886,445			
					


Prelim. 13047
12:22am
Dem Party ID  margin widens to 3%				

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Total
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Republican 	35%	92%	7%	0%	99.0%
Independent	27%	45%	52%	2%	99.0%
	       100%	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%	99.4%
	Odds 1 in	303,538,508			
					
					

Final 13660	
2:05pm
Party ID AND vote precentages are "adjusted".				

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Total
Democrat 	37%	11%	89%	0	100.0%
Republican 	37%	93%	6%	0	99.0%
Independent	26%	48%	49%	1%	98.0%
	      100%	50.96%	47.89%	0.26%	99.11%
	Odds 1 in	1			
					
What happened here?				
Notice the Independent total decline to 98%?

In fact, they everything should total 100%.
Rounding fudge?

Ok, let's keep the mix constant.				
But change the percentages back to the 13047 poll.				
					
Final 13660	2:05pm (revised)
Change back to the 13047 poll percentages.				

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Total
Democrat 	37%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Republican 	37%	92%	7%	0%	99.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	2%	99.0%
	       100%	49.07%	49.41%	0.89%	99.37%
	Odds 1 in	1,755			
					
Kerry is still the winner, even with the bogus 37/37/26 Party
ID mix.
Changing the mix from 38/35/37 was not enough.				
They had to change the votes as well.				

And the odds drop sharply that Bush would get 50.73%.