Reply #14: You are just kidding, right?

[TruthIsAll]

You:
You write: "Note: 3.5% is the approximate percentage of 2000 voters who have since died, based on the annual death rate of 8.7 per
1000."

The annual death rate is not the same as the voter death rate. You have a false assumption here.

Me:
A false assumption?
Can you prove that it is false?
Or do you mean an invalid assumption?
If so, do you have a better estimate?

Are voters not humans, too?
Do they have a significantly different life span than non-voters?
Very strange, specious argument.
You are really stretching it.
What would you use as the voter death rate?
What is your point?

OF COURSE, IT'S A CLOSE APPROXIMATION.
CLOSE ENOUGH TO USE IN THE ANALYSIS
Duh..

You:
What percentage of the voter age population died?

Me:
See above.

You:
How did different age groups vote, and at what rate did they die?

Me:
You really want me to go to the wall on this. Sorry.

Your passion for exactitude which can never be realized betrays your fundamental lack of knowledge in the modeling process. You make the classic error of creating a problem where none exists.

We are talikng very small quantities here, relatively speaking. If the annual death rate for voters is 0.77% and not 0.87%, would it matter one bit as far as far as the essential conculsions are concerned? Of course not.The 4-year number would be 3.08%, not 3.50%.

Now 0.42% of 104.777 = 3.227 million. That's a decrease of 440,000, which would result in slight, but proportional increases in Bush, Gore and Nader voter turnout.

This would have a negligible effect on the final, plausible weights which I have calculated - and even so, would favor neither Bush or Kerry. Furthermore, it has absolutely NOTHING to do with the fact that the 43%/37% weighting is IMPOSSIBLE.

I think you get the point.
KISS.

You:
And where's the algebra?

Me:
Ok, call it simple arithmetic.

Total 2004 Vote = New voters + Bush 2000 Voter + Gore 2000 voter + Nader/Other Vote - voters who died - voters who did not vote in 2004.

122.26 = New + 50.456 + 50.999 +3.322 -.035*104.77 - NoVote

We do not know NoVote, the number of 2000 voters who did not vote in 2004, but we do know it is >0.

Therefore,
New = 122.26- 50.456 -50.999 -3.322 +.035*104.77 + NoVote.
or
New = 122.26 - 104.777 + 3.667 + NoVote

Let's assume NoVote=0 for one moment:
New = 17.483 +3.667 + 0
New = 21.15 million

But since NoVote must be > 0, let's take the radical step of assuming a value.

Would you like to try 1%?

If we assume NoVote = 1% of those 2000 voters who were still alive (101.10) and kicking on Election Day 2004 then:

NoVote = .01*101.10 = 1.01 million.

and

New = 21.15+1.01 = 22.16 million.

There is your algebra.

Now where is your logic?