Reply #20: The 17% No Vote is a solid number and leaves no wiggle room for Bush

[TruthIsAll]

Because we know precisely the difference between the number
who voted in 2004 and 2000. It's FIXED at 17.482 million.

The only weights which can be adjusted are those of Bush, Gore
and Other (Nader et al). But Other is a very small 3.323
million, so there is not much you can do with that.

There is no choice but to try to adjust the Bush/Gore weights,
even if it means going from an impossible 41% (the Bush
maximum was 39.82%) to an even MOTE impossible 43%.


	Vote	Total	Alive (less)	Max	
2000 vote	2000	% 2004 	3.50%	Turnout	
Bush	50.456	41.27%	48.69	39.82%	max
Gore	50.999	41.71%	49.21	40.25%	max
Other	3.323	2.72%	3.21	2.62%	max
Total 104.778 85.70%	101.111	82.70%	max
					
Total 2004 vote 
	122.26				
New vote (min)
	17.482	14.30%	21.149	17.30%	min
					
We must have:					
New Voters = 17.482 = 122.26 - Bush 2000 - Gore2000 -
Other2000 
NEW VOTERS =  17.482 = 122.26 - 104.778				

	Prel  Final			
     13047	13660		
2000 vote	     Possible? Reason
Bush	41%	43%	no/no	Exceeds max
Gore	39%	37%	yes/yes	Below max
Other	3%	3%	No/no	Exceeds max
Total	83%	83%	No/no	Exceeds max
New	17%	17%	No/no	Below min