Reply #19: Four interesting New Voter scenarios..

[TruthIsAll]

Each scenario is IDENTICAL to the FINAL EXIT POLL (13660
respondents) which had Bush the winner by 3 miilion votes,
except for:

1) the Kerry/Bush New voter split 
(Kerry won 54%/45% in the FINAL Exit Poll)

2) the IMPOSSIBLE Bush/Gore 43%/37% Mix is replaced by
39.82%/40.18% to account for:
a) the Bush vote (50.456) 
b) the Gore vote (50.999)
c) 3.5% deaths since 2000

We will assume that 100% of Bush and Gore voters voted in
2004.

Scenario 1: 
Assume Bush and Kerry split New Voters 50/50

Kerry still wins by 1% (1.2 million votes)

2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	50%	50%	0%
Gore	40.18%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	8%
TOTAL	100%	49.38%	50.38%	0.24%
Votes	122.26	60.38	61.59	0.29

Scenario 2: 
Assume Bush wins New Voters by 51/49

Kerry still wins by 800,000 votes

2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	51%	49%	0%
Gore	40.18%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	8%
TOTAL	100%	49.55%	50.21%	0.24%
Votes	122.26	60.58	61.38	0.29

Scenario 3: 
Assume Bush wins New Voters by 52/48

Kerry still wins by 380,000 votes

2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	52%	48%	0%
Gore	40.18%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	8%
TOTAL	100%	49.72%	50.04%	0.24%
Votes	122.26	60.79	61.17	0.29

Scenario 4: 
Assume Bush wins New Voters by 53/47

Bush wins by 30,000 votes.

2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	53%	47%	0%
Gore	40.18%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	8%
TOTAL	100%	49.89%	49.87%	0.24%
Votes	122.26	61.00	60.97	0.29