You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer
supported by the Administrators.
Visit
The New DU. Reply #25: They are new voters. Kerry won by 57-41%. Yes they are factored in.
[View All]
TruthIsAll
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Mar-29-05 03:09 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
| 25. They are new voters. Kerry won by 57-41%. Yes they are factored in. |
|
Check the demographic mix. The point of the thread is the Bush/Gore voter spread.
Voted in 2000:
Total 2004 Vote = New voters + Bush2000Net + Gore2000Net + Other2000Net
.
122.26 = N + BNet + GNet + ONet
New = BNet + GNet + ONet - 122.26
BNet < 50.456 - Bush2000 deaths = 50.456 -.035*50.456= 50.456-1.77 = 48.68
GNet < 50.999 - Gore2000 deaths =50.999 - .035*50.999 = 50.999 - 1.785 = 49.21
So as the BNet voter turnout drops from an impossible 43% to the maximum 39.8%, Gore2000 voters and New voters must increase (assume Other is unchanged).
And those are all Kerry votes.
|
Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators
Important Notices: By participating on this discussion
board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules
page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the
opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent
the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread