Reply #5: WHAT IF A HIGHER % OF GORE VOTERS TURNED OUT THEN BUSH VOTERS?

[TruthIsAll]

Then it was a major landslide for Kerry, depending on the
percentage turnout differential. 

					KERRY NATIONAL VOTE SCENARIOS					
					New Voter Share and Bush 2000 Voter Turnout					
					(Assume 100% Turnout of Gore 2000 voters)					

	Assumed		Prelim.	     Prelim.			Final		
	Turnout	      7:38pm	     12:22am		    2:05pm 2000 Voter 	
	Bush	Gore	11027	     13047			13660	Bush	Gore


			KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS
							
Case			59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%		

1	100.0%	100.0%	52.28%	52.11%	51.94%	51.77%	51.59%	51.42%	39.82%	40.25%
2	98.8%	100.0%	52.53%	52.36%	52.18%	52.00%	51.82%	51.64%	39.32%	40.25%
3	97.6%	100.0%	52.78%	52.60%	52.42%	52.24%	52.05%	51.87%	38.82%	40.25%
4	96.4%	100.0%	53.03%	52.85%	52.66%	52.47%	52.28%	52.09%	38.32%	40.25%
5	95.1%	100.0%	53.28%	53.09%	52.90%	52.71%	52.51%	52.32%	37.82%	40.25%
										
6	93.9%	100.0%	53.53%	53.34%	53.14%	52.94%	52.74%	52.54%	37.32%	40.25%
7	92.7%	100.0%	53.78%	53.58%	53.38%	53.18%	52.97%	52.77%	36.82%	40.25%
8	91.5%	100.0%	54.03%	53.83%	53.62%	53.41%	53.20%	52.99%	36.32%	40.25%
9	90.3%	100.0%	54.28%	54.07%	53.86%	53.65%	53.43%	53.22%	35.82%	40.25%
10	89.1%	100.0%	54.53%	54.32%	54.10%	53.88%	53.66%	53.44%	35.32%	40.25%


			Kerry Margin (millions of votes))				
							
	Bush	Kerry Share of New voters					
Case	Turn  59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%

1	100%	7.29	6.86	6.44	6.02	5.59	5.17
2	98.8%	7.90	7.46	7.03	6.59	6.16	5.72
3	97.6%	8.51	8.06	7.61	7.17	6.72	6.27
4	96.4%	9.12	8.66	8.20	7.74	7.28	6.82
5	95.1%	9.73	9.26	8.79	8.31	7.84	7.37
							
6	93.9%	10.34	9.86	9.37	8.89	8.40	7.92
7	92.7%	10.95	10.46	9.96	9.46	8.97	8.47
8	91.5%	11.56	11.06	10.55	10.04	9.53	9.02
9	90.3%	12.18	11.66	11.13	10.61	10.09	9.57
10	89.1%	12.79	12.25	11.72	11.19	10.65	10.12