KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 NEP SCENARIOS: NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER TURNOUT

[TruthIsAll]

Kerry wins 57 OF 60 TURNOUT/NEW VOTER SHARE scenarios, even
assuming 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout and 89% Gore turnout.

					KERRY NATIONAL VOTE SCENARIOS					
					New Voter Share and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout					
					(Assume 100% Turnout of Bush 2000 voters)					

	Assumed		Prelim.	     Prelim.			Final		
	Turnout	      7:38pm	     12:22am		    2:05pm 2000 Voter 	
	Bush	Gore	11027	     13047			13660	Bush	Gore

			KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS							
Case			59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%		
1	100%	100.0%	52.28%	52.11%	51.94%	51.77%	51.59%	51.42%	39.82%	40.25%
2	100%	98.8%	52.12%	51.95%	51.77%	51.59%	51.41%	51.23%	39.82%	39.75%
3	100%	97.6%	51.96%	51.78%	51.60%	51.42%	51.23%	51.05%	39.82%	39.25%
4	100%	96.4%	51.80%	51.62%	51.43%	51.24%	51.05%	50.86%	39.82%	38.75%
5	100%	95.2%	51.64%	51.45%	51.26%	51.07%	50.87%	50.68%	39.82%	38.25%
										
6	100%	94.0%	51.48%	51.29%	51.09%	50.89%	50.69%	50.49%	39.82%	37.75%
7	100%	92.8%	51.32%	51.12%	50.92%	50.72%	50.51%	50.31%	39.82%	37.25%
8	100%	91.6%	51.16%	50.96%	50.75%	50.54%	50.33%	50.12%	39.82%	36.75%
9	100%	90.4%	51.00%	50.79%	50.58%	50.37%	50.15%	49.94%	39.82%	36.25%
10	100%	89.2%	50.84%	50.63%	50.41%	50.19%	49.97%	49.75%	39.82%	35.75%
										

Case 1 scenario detail for the Preliminary Exit Poll of 13047
in which Kerry won 57% of new voters. 

Assume full 100% turnout in 2004 of 101.097 million Bush and
Gore 2000 voters, assuming 3.667 (3.5%) of the original 104.77
died.	

Voted	2000
	      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
21.16 	None	17.31%	41%	57%	2%
49.21 	Gore	40.25%	8%	91%	1%
48.68   Bush  39.82%	90%	9%	1%
 3.20 	Other  2.62% 	13%	71%	16%

TOTAL	        100%  46.50% 51.94% 1.57%	
122.26	Votes	122.26	56.85	63.50	1.91	

Kerry	Margin: 6.65 million votes