Reply #68: No one forgets who they voted for last time.

[TruthIsAll]

Why even consider that possibility?

I agree with most of you other points, but to consider even the possibility that this would account for the discrepancy is an argument that I would expect from a naysayer.

I will try to estimate just how far off the 43% (52.57 million votes) is from reality:

Absolute maximum number who could have voted for Bush in 2000: 50.45/122.26= 41.26%

Four year death rate:
= 3.5% (0.87% annual * 4)

Apply to the Bush 2000 voter:
.035* 41.26% = 1.44%

Live Bush 2000 voter:
= 41.26 -1.44= 39.82%

How many Bush 2000 voters stayed home?
We know anaecdotally that many traditional, true conservative Repubs were thoroughly disgusted with Bush.
Let's assume 1% stayed home rather than vote for Kerry.

How many were incapacitated from illness, injury, infirm, other?
Say 0.5%

NEP: 43% was impossible
Maximum = 41.26%
Less:
Died = 1.44%
Did not vote: 1.0%
Other = 0.5%

Net 2000 Bush voters who voted in 2004:
38.32% or 46.85 million

compare to the exit poll:
43% = 52.57 million

Diff = 4.68% or 5.72 million.

Considering the 1% MOE, the odds are 1 in the trillions that this deviation could have been due to chance.

Bush won by 62-59 million
Take 5.72 (round to 6 million) away.

Add 5 million to Kerry:
Kerry 64 mm (53%)
Bush 56 (46%)