Reply #37: Thanks, Jack, you have just provided DU with another SMOKING GUN

[TruthIsAll]

Here's why we now have all the MORE reason NOT to believe that 41% in the PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL (and surely not 43% in the FINAL) voted in 2000 for Bush...and that 38% may very well have been accurate or even slightly lower than the percentage who voted for Gore.

Two points:

1. If 38% of poll respondents claimed they voted for Gore and 41% said they voted for Bush, why did Mitofsky and others say that Bush voters were more reluctant to speak to the exit pollsters?

Maybe Kerry actually did even better than the early exit polls which had him winning 51-48%.

2. How many of those who voted in 2000 DIED or became INCAPACITATED and never got to the polls? You would expect a certain amount of attrition, wouldn't you?

There HAD to be FEWER voters in 2004 who voted in 2000 then the ACTUAL number of those who did, not MORE.

SO THE FACT THAT ONLY 46.36 MM OF THE 51 MILLION WHO VOTED FOR GORE (if you believe 38%) RETURNED TO VOTE IN 2004 IS VERY PLAUSIBLE.

FURTHERMORE, IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT FEWER THAN 4.64 MILLION DIED OR WERE INCAPACITATED OR JUST STAYED HOME AND THAT THE ACTUAL PERCENTAGE WAS A LITTLE HIGHER (39%?).

BUT WE DO KNOW FOR A FACT THAT THE NUMBER OF GORE VOTERS WHO TURNED OUT IN 2004 HAD TO BE FEWER THAN THE NUMBER WHO ACTUALLY VOTED IN 2000.

ANYONE CARE TO CHECK THE MORTALITY TABLES FOR DEMOCRATS?

BUT THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL THAT 2 MILLION BUSH VOTERS COULD HAVE MATERIALIZED WHO WERE NOT ALIVE IN 2000 TO BEGIN WITH. EVEN JESUS COULDN'T BRING THAT MANY BACK FROM THE DEAD.

In any case, Kerry won 59% of the 21 million new voters, Bush only 39%. And Kerry won the vast majority (65%) of Nader voters to Bush's 13%.

So maybe Kerry did even better than 50.90-47.90%.

If we assume that 40% of voters in 2004 voted for Gore and 40% for Bush, then we have:

Mix Bush Kerry Nader
17% 41% 57% 1%
40% 8% 91% 1%
40% 90% 9% 0%
3% 13% 65% 16%
100% 46.56% 51.64% 1.05%

Thanks, Jack, you have just added another smoking gun to the arsenal.

Have you converted yet?