Reply #34: 2000 Pres. Vote Characteristic in the 2004 Exit Poll

[dzika]

I have been making the assumption that not enough of the NEP data has been released to compare the 2004 exit poll to precincts/voting machines. Based on that assumption, I believe the following to be true.


FACT: Either the un-weighted exit polls are wrong, the weighted exit polls are wrong or both are wrong.

FACT: The most verifiable characteristic in the exit poll (with the exception of the vote count) is 2000 vote response. Based on that characteristic, one of the following must be true (based on TIA's analysis here):

1. The un-weighted exit poll is more correct than the weighted exit poll

2. The 2000 vote total was incorrect. George W. Bush actually won more popular votes that Al Gore.

3. The 2000 vote response characteristic in the 2004 exit poll can't be used to make assumptions about the vote count in the 2004 exit poll.

If you selected #3 then you then you will probably not believe that there is sufficient evidence to suspect the 2004 vote count based on exit polls until additional data is released or discovered.


Can anyone explain where my understanding is flawed? Thanks!