Reply #8: You are correct. There is always a small sampling error factor.

[TruthIsAll]

We can modify the equation:
I = R + S + F + e, where e = the true polling error, which is a non-biased positive or negative term. It applies equally to Bush or Kerry, so we can assume it is zero. We know that e (really the MoE) is very small for exit polls.

Exit Poll deviation from the Recorded Vote (based on Democratic loss) has averaged near 3% in the last 5 elections. Naturally spoiled votes (a declining factor as mechanical punched card machines are replaced by automated equipment) have accounted for approximately 1-2% of the total votes cast. The Fraud factor (BBV/optiscan) must therefore account for the remaining deviation.

THERE IS NO PAPER TRAIL TO MEASURE THE DEVIATIONS DUE TO PROGRAMMED TOUCHSCREENS WHICH DEFAULT TO BUSH - AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COMPUTERS WHICH SUM THE VOTES.

And we must not forget:
THE EXIT POLLS DO NOT INCLUDE THE LARGE NUMBER OF VOTERS WHO FOR VARIOUS REASONS (DISENFRANCHISEMENT, LONG LINES, ETC.) NEVER GET TO VOTE AND ARE THEREFORE NEVER COUNTED IN THE POLL.