The Unmaking of the President: 2004

[TruthIsAll]

PRE-ELECTION TRENDS AND FORECASTS

1. Pre-election Vote Projections


2. National Pre-election Vote Trend based on Weighted State Polls


3. Nine Independent Polls: Monthly Pre-election Average Trend


4. Final Pre-election National Polls: 18 Corporates and Independents


5. Bush Job Approval: Feb. 2001 – Nov. 2004


POST ELECTION ANALYSIS

6. Pre-election Published State Polls vs. Exit Polls


7. Exit Poll Deviations: Gore 2000 vs. Kerry 2004


8. National Exit Poll Demographic-Weighted Vote Percentages


9. Red Shift Deviations and Probabilities


10. State Vote Deviations by Machine Type


11. State Exit Poll Deviations vs. Margin of Error