Reply #56: Another priceless bit

[althecat]

12. Swing states:
The WPE was greater in the more competitive “swing” states. For this analysis, the
following were considered swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota,
Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Swing state mean WPE median WPE mean Abs(WPE) N
Precinct not in a swing state -6.1 -5.1 13.1 776
Precinct in a swing state -7.9 -8.6 14.8 474
Swing state Completion Rate Refusal Rate Miss Rate
Precinct not in a swing state 0.56 0.34 0.10
Precinct in a swing state 0.50 0.38 0.11
This indicates that voters in the swing states (who were exposed to more paid advertising
and media coverage than voters in non-swing states) were less likely to respond to the
exit poll: but among those who did, more likely to be Kerry voters.

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TRANSLATION... we are right that there is a swing state bias in the level of poll error, but you can blame that on the advertisers. Or more specifically on the fact that Bush voters don't respond to exit polls as often in places where there is lots of advertising.