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Reply #106: Understood. [View All]

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mdhunter Donating Member (373 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-13-05 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #87
106. Understood.
You're numbers were correct for a coin flip, but then you said that it was the same as baseball team's probability of winning 11 games in a row.

Which, again, it's not because baseball teams have an inherent probability of winning that it unlikely to be .50. A good team may win 70% of its games, and it may not be at all noteworthy that they win 10 or so games in a row.

That's all I'm saying, flipping coins is not like playing baseball, and running elections may be more like playing baseball than flipping coins.
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