Reply #36: Thank you IndyOp

[Time for change]

Yes, EOTE is my son. Thank you for posting this analysis.

If you check out my post # 18 in this thread you can see that I re-did the analysis using percentages (as MuleThree did), in response to a post by MarcusQ, and came up with something very similar to what MuleThree obtained (48,746 vote spread). I agree that this is a better way to do it.

Nevertheless, as I also suggest in post # 18, I believe that the exit poll information in combination with this analysis suggests that there was probably vote fraud in the non-Triad counties as well, but more in the Triad counties. If one makes the additional assumption that the exit polls were reasonably accurate, the 48,746 vote spread in the Triad counties would become much greater (but I made no assumption about exit polls in this analysis).

I don't quite agree that the analysis is less powerful because I grouped the counties as Triad vs. non-Triad, but I don't fully follow your thought on that issue, and in any event, I don't feel that this is a terribly powerful analysis anyhow, by itself. Rather, I feel that it is the exit poll data that really makes a good case for vote fraud, and this analysis, combined with the exit poll data, suggests that probably most of the vote fraud occurred in the Triad counties.
Here is a more specific break down by group:
Triad punch cards -- -0.95%
Other punch cards -- +2.43%
Optic scans -- +0.05%
Electronic voting -- +4.52%

Here are the counties that exhibited the greatest discrepancies in favor of Gore compared to Kerry (minus signs designate better Gore than Kerry performance):
Shelby PC other -12.1%
Van Wert PC Triad -9.9%
Mercer PC Triad -9.7%
Darke PC Triad -8.5%
Lawrence PC other -7.0%
Miami Optic scan -6.9%
Clinton PC Triad -6.7%
Auglaize Electronic -5.9%
Bellmont PC other -5.8%
Jackson PC Triad -5.5%
Paulding PC Triad -5.0%
Harrison PC Triad -5.0%
Marion PC Triad -4.7%
Hardin Optic scan -4.2%
Champaign PC Triad -4.1%
Wyandot PC other -3.6%
Highland PC Triad -3.5%
Preble PC Triad -3.5%
Clermont Optic scan -3.2%
Defiance PC Triad -3.2%
Madison PC Triad -3.0%
Clark PC Triad -2.7%
Logan PC Triad -2.6%
Ross Electronic -2.6%

One last point: To expand on my earlier argument for consideration of this data in combination with the exit polls: The exit polls after 1:00 a.m. showed Kerry winning Ohio by 4.2%. Gore lost Ohio by 4.0%. That's a difference in favor of Kerry of 8.2%. So if the exit polls were accurate, that would mean that Kerry should perform in the average county by 8.2% better than Gore. Yet, all of the above noted counties are characterized by Gore outperforming Kerry. The overall discrepancy in these counties would then range from 10.8% to 20.3%.