Reply #43: According to Mitofsky

[Heewack]

The numbers were leaked without proper weighting.

The thing that I think you have to consider is that his exist polls were design to project a winner, not determine fraud. Two different animals in the way the polls are constructed and put into practice, at least according to Mitofsky. And since we are using his numbers his input has to be taken seriously.

"And what about the 71,000 exit polled and released prior to 8am?
That's 63% of the 113,000 total to be polled, and is a pretty heavy weight all by itself."

Not if the numbers are not weighted correctly due to sample differences. That can take a little while to determine whether you have samples 59% women, or 59% men in a given polling place, and how to adjust them to reflect a predictable outcome. Evidently sometimes it takes too much time if the voting is close.


"If we assume the final 113,000 is a fair representation of the voting population, and Kerry was ahead by 3% after 71,000 were polled, then consider this:

Bush needed to win 56% of remaining 42,000 to reverse the 51-48 spread from Kerry to his favor.

Forget weighting for a moment. Do you really believe that a 15% Bush turnaround from the first 71,000 (counted, where he had 48%) to the final 42,000 (not yet counted, where he needed 56%) was possible?"

The way I understand this you can't forget weighting because the raw numbers are only representitive of whom you were able to take the poll. Without weighting you could take that same 113,000 and if they came from a certain precinct that was heavily one candidate or another it would skew the results.

But I get what you are saying.

In the polls the weighting is everything.

If you had a definite random sample then your conclusions would be correct about the unheard of 15% turnaround from the first 71,000. But that obviously wasn't the case according the the man who did the poll.

I think your analysis has been interesting and I think one could actually find some factual abnormalities if we had the complete data. I just think that with what we have it is near impossible to make a conclusive judgement.

I hope you have a Happy Holiday's.