Reply #51: I appreciate your comments.

[TruthIsAll]

The probability calculation IS for AT LEAST 16 state vote tallies to exceed the polling MOE - all favor of Bush.

I used the the Excel Binomial Distribution probability function.

This function returns the individual term binomial distribution probability. Use BINOMDIST in problems with a fixed number of tests or trials, when the outcomes of any trial are only success or failure, when trials are independent, and when the probability of success is constant throughout the experiment. For example, BINOMDIST can calculate the probability that two of the next three babies born are male.

Syntax
BINOMDIST(number_s,trials,probability_s,cumulative)

Number_s is the number of successes in trials.
Trials is the number of independent trials.
Probability_s is the probability of success on each trial.

Cumulative is a logical value that determines the form of the function. If cumulative is TRUE, then BINOMDIST returns the cumulative distribution function, which is the probability that there are AT MOST number_s successes; if FALSE, it returns the probability mass function, which is the probability that there are number_s successes.

Let X = The probability that at MOST 15 would fall outside the MOE:
X = BINOMDIST(15, 51, .025, TRUE).

Here .025 represnts the probability that a state would deviate beyond the mOE in favor of Bush.

So the converse probability P that AT LEAST 16 would fall outside the MOE is: P = 1 - X

The odds are equal to 1/P or 1 out of 13.5 trillion.

*********************************************
The odds that at least 41 out of 51 states would move in favor of Bush (without regard to magnitude) from the exit polls is 1 out of 135,000.

Once again, we use the binomial distribution, with .50 as the probability that a given state would move to Bush from the exit polls.

Let X = The probability that at MOST 40 would fall outside the MOE:
X = BINOMDIST(40, 51, .025, TRUE)

So the probability P that AT LEAST 41 would fall outside the MOE is:
P = 1 - X

The Odds = 1/P = 1 out of 135,000

As far as the analysis is concerned:

1. The MOE for a standard (non-exit) poll is strictly a function of the number sampled. The MOE = 1 /Sqrt(N)
For 2826 sampled in FL, the MOE is 1.84%

2. Historic experience shows that Exit Polls are more accurate than standard polls.

3. Over 71,000 individuals were exit-polled nationwide in the exit poll data downloaded by Simon at 12:22 AM on Nov 3.

I used these nnumbers to calculate the MOE and vote tally deviation from the exit poll for each state, as I have displayed above.

Any attempt at spinning the Kerry lead in the exit polls as being due to early voting; incomplete, biased samples; Bush voters coming late to the polls; Kerry's voting early; Bush voters not talking to pollsters, Kerry's doing so.....etc, etc. is designed to not get at the truth, but to rewrite history.

It's truly Orwellian.

I have been a quantitative analyst/model builder all my life, and have worked in many disciplines. I do not pretend to be a polling expert, but I know that the basic analysis is correct. This is NOT rocket science. I have several advanced degrees in mathematics, and I know from long-time HANDS-ON experience that my analysis is essentially correct.