Reply #12: Indeed Steve Rosenthal does not discuss vote fraud - so why the post?

[papau]

Steve Rosenthal
Sunday, December 5, 2004; Page B03

He concludes - after no discussion of fraud - that the Bushes votes - based on after election polls and exit polls - came from "skillful exploitation of public concern over terrorism by the Bush team -- coupled with Democrats' inability to draw clear, powerful contrasts on the economy and health care"
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BUT Then he explains all the reasons that fraud is likely - without saying fraud is likely!

We did get out the Dem vote .. "not only exceeded our turnout goals for the Buckeye State, but far exceeded anything the Democrats have done in the past.

and "2004 election brought no increase whatsoever in the portion of the voting electorate who attend church on a weekly basis or more often than that, according to exit polls. In Ohio, the share of the electorate represented by frequent churchgoers actually declined from 45 percent in 2000 to 40 percent in 2004. Nationwide, Bush improved his vote among weekly churchgoers by just one point over 2000, while (APPARENTLY) increasing his support among those who don't go to church by four points."

BUSH did not out win by out-mobilizing Dems via huge turnout in GOP strongholds and suppressing turnout in Democratic areas - "Turnout in Democratic-leaning counties in Ohio was up 8.7 percent while turnout in Republican-leaning counties was up slightly less, at 6.3 percent."

There was no huge Bush margin in newly registered Republican voters in fast-growing rural and exurban areas - the split was about same or less than Bush vote among old registertion folks in those areas -"Bush beat Kerry by just five points among newly registered voters and by a mere two points among infrequent voters (those who did not vote in 2000)".

Bush did not out volunteer/contact the Dems -"When we asked new voters in rural and exurban areas who contacted them during this campaign, we learned that they were just as likely to hear from the Kerry campaign and its allies as from the Bush side. (In contrast, regular voters reported more contact from the GOP.)"

Bush had the conservative religious groups, pro-life organizations, and the National Rifle Association reaching (per post election polling) only "only 20 percent of exurban and rural Ohio voters" -"In contrast, these same voters in the least unionized regions of Ohio were more likely to have been contacted by a labor union."