Reply #15: I know Vietnam and Wallace were factors.

[Georgia_Dem]

But Nixon's ability to win Dixiecratic votes was also a reason for him winning. I doubt being viewed as more anti-war than Humphrey helped Nixon. After all, George McGovern was anti-war, yet in the 1972 election, he lost forty-nine states, including his home state of South Dakota.

Even if John F. Kennedy hadn't been shot, I feel that Robert still would've been a leading contender. John had become popular due to his
handling of the Cuban missile crisis. Robert would've benefitted from
that.

I don't think George Bush's status as governor of Texas mattered in 2000. It was just that he had name recognition and the ability to appeal overwhelmingly to rural Americans. That's why he's president (well, that and the fraud).

In 2008, I doubt the Iraq war will have hurt the Republicans more than it already has, especially if the troops are out of there by then. I mean, there was a lot a bad stuff about it released during the 2004 election. Over a thousand soldiers dead, the conclusion by experts that there were no WMDs, and CIA projections of either more of the same in Iraq late in this year or civil war. On the other hand, Bush's health/social security plan and likely upcoming war with
North Korea and/or Iran may hurt his party quite a bit.

Unless Hilary Clinton, who I doubt any other Democrat can beat, runs in 2008 (I'm not factoring Al Gore in because he's not likely to run), both the Democratic and Republican primaries will be fierce. It will be the Democrats best chance of getting back into power, and who doesn't want to orchestrate it? If it does get to be a Democratic
landslide due to a backlash against the Republicans, the Democrats will go at each other not in spite of that, but because of it. Because they'll know that if they've got presidential aspirations, that'll be their best chance. And the numerous Republicans hoping to become president in 2008 (Jeb Bush, John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger, etc.) means that their primaries will be heated too.

Yeah, you're right that Perdue's chances depends on how he does in 2006. But not on who's elected lt. governor. The lt. governor won't have time to run for president. For Perdue, he'll realize if he wins in a "lesser of two evils" scenerio that he can't win the White House.