Reply #50: I think the tipping factor is name recognition.

[LooseWilly]

That's part of why Jerry ran for AG, to up his name recognition in California. Ironically, the teamsters in Oakland thought that they could extract a little more cooperation from him in terms of putting pressure on his protege in Oakland, de la Fuente, in exchange for support for the statewide run. Jerry apparently knew he didn't need no stinking teamsters... or maybe his man who's still president of the city council just told him to go fuck himself... either way, Jerry's man left the Teamsters swinging in the breeze.

State AG is higher profile than SF mayor, sort of. On the other hand, Jerry made a point of refusing to defend prop 8 before the State Supreme Court, even going so far as to join the opposition attacking the proposition, and forcing the supporters to hire a lawyer themselves to defend the proposition in court. So he's pretty associated with gay rights here too.

And Newsom's bucking everyone and giving his blessing to same sex marriages in SF until Schwarzenegger legally ordered him to stop seems likely to generate the same sort of courage to stand up for shit associations that Jerry Brown has a rep for.

On the other hand... I have no idea what people think in Fresno, Bakersfield, Redding, Anaheim Hills, Palm Springs, or Eureka think. Though, SF & LA together outvote the rest of the state with ease. The real frame is old-school (Brown) vs new-school (Newsom). Villaraigosa is something of a wildcard... and I'd be interested in hearing from some LA folks regarding their estimation of his standing...