Reply #14: I don't see how you can seriously project 55.6% in an open race

[Awsi Dooger]

Two-party vote, or however you want to break it down, 55.6% makes no sense in an open race. Even Eisenhower didn't manage quite that much in '52, a war hero in an incredibly favorable environment with the Korean War impact and 20 consecutive years of Democratic rule.

Open races are tight by definition. Without a track record in highest office, the voters aren't thrilled or disgusted with either candidate.

Obama could manage this type of number in 2012, if he had an incredibly successful first term and faced a weak GOP challenger. But even that is very unlikely. There's too much blind GOP support in the South and plains states for a nationwide Democrat to rack up such a high percentage.

I'm not impressed when proposed numbers don't threaten common sense.