McCain's Growing Arizona Problem (Update III) McCain campaign now calls AZ "Battleground State"

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Review of the Facts about John McCain and his Growing problem in Arizona

I. McCain has a poor showing in the Arizona Primary

Although largely ignored by the Media McCain struggled in the Arizona Primary where he was the only one of the main candidates not achieve 50% in his home state and had the lowest plurality over the second place candidate, despite the fact that the Democratic Primaries had a much more contentious primary battle.

Obama won Illinois with 65%

Clinton won New York with 57%

McCain won Arizona with only 47%

Obama's advantage over Clinton was 32% in Illinois and Clinton had a 17% advantage over Obama in New York, while McCain managed to beat Romney by only 13 points in his home state.

II. Arizona Financial Contributors

http://query.nictusa.com/pres/2008/M6/C00430470/A_STATE_C00430470.html
Arizona has contributed a total of $11 million to presidential candidates. McCain has been able to get only 39% of that number despite the fact that 1) He is constantly returning there for fund raisers, some with the sitting President 2) His in-laws are major fat cats there with tremendous local connections. Obama has received 55% of the money raised in Illinois despite the fact that other Democrats did very well there including Senator Clinton who was born there. As a comparison 38% of the Arizona Republican money went to other candidates besides McCain.

In May, the only month where they were running head to head McCain raised $208k in Arizona while Obama was right behind at $ 191k.

III. Polling in Arizona McCain's lead continues to slide from over 20 points to 9

The last 4 polls all show him at less than 51% of the vote

ASU April 24th McCain 47% Obama 38% http://www.azpbs.org/horizon/poll/2008/4-29-08.htm

BRC May 12th McCain 50% Obama 39% http://www.pollster.com/08-AZ-Pres-GE-MvO.php

ASU June 28th McCain 38% Obama 28% http://www.azpbs.org/horizon/poll/2008/6-24-08.htm

RAS June 25th McCain 49% Obama 40% Barr 6% http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/arizona/arizona_toplines_june_25_2008


The most interesting point in in the sub questions for the latest Rasmussen Poll was that when asked questions about how enthusiastic they were for McCain, his supporters were rather tepid.

For example for 'favorability' only 21% of Arizonans rate McCain 'Very Favorable' while 28% ranked Obama 'Very Favorable'.

Its hard to compare polling in Illinois because there haven't been any recent ones but polls taken during the primary showed Obama with a 30 point lead.

IV. McCain's Campaign Admits that Arizona is not a safe seat and is going to be contested

The media is starting to catch on:http://washingtonindependent.com/view/mccain-campaign

McCain Calls Arizona a Swing State

PHOENIX--Sen. John McCain’s big struggle to energize a suspicious conservative Republican base and attract crucial independent voters is a national fight that encompasses his home state of Arizona. Despite representing the state in Congress for 26 years, McCain is now confronting a resurgent state Democratic Party and a burgeoning number of unpredictable independent voters.

While Arizona Republicans are bogged down with nasty infighting and a slumping number of registered voters, Arizona Democrats are gaining voters daily. Powered by Sen. Barack Obama’s voter registration drive, Democratic voter registration is up 2.8 percent in the last year and Democrats are poised to gain control of a majority of the state’s House congressional delegation for the first time in decades. The biggest shift in the Arizona political landscape has been in the number of voters registering as independents -- up 7.6 percent in the last year. Arizona is now essentially a tri-party state -- Republicans make up 38 percent of registered voters; Democrats, 34 percent, and independents, 27 percent. Securing a plurality of independents will be crucial to the presidential race here and Obama has the early edge. Without the enthusiastic support of rank-and-file Republicans, McCain could face a desert dogfight that could wind up costing him the White House in a close contest.

In a clear signal that Arizona’s 10 electoral votes are up for grabs, the McCain campaign has added Arizona to its list of 24 “battleground states” with their 242 electoral votes.In a “strategy briefing” video posted Saturday on the McCain campaign website, Rick Davis, the campaign manager, did not include Arizona as one of the 17 “historically Republican states” -- though Arizona has voted Republican in every presidential election but one since 1952.

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The Arizona GOP’s open rebellion against McCain is rooted in the wealthy neighborhoods of Legislative District 11 -- which includes McCain’s home precinct. The district's GOP chairman, Rob Haney, has led a strident attack on McCain over immigration, as well as his support of campaign finance reform and original refusal to back Bush’s tax cuts. In 2005, Haney helped pass a resolution censuring McCain for abandoning conservative principles in both District 11 and the Maricopa County GOP.

The seriousness of McCain’s effort is demonstrated by the list of candidates vying for what are normally considered low-level party positions. There are two former Arizona governors -- J. Fife Symington III and Jane Hull – as well as some of the state’s wealthiest and most powerful business leaders.Silencing McCain’s ideological critics in Arizona, Haney said, will make it easier for McCain to appeal to independents and disaffected Democrats.

Obvious McCain is still a favorite in his home state, but if he falls further in the polls there then he would have to spend time and money in Arizona to make sure that it does not become even closer, an embarassment that even the MSM would have to cover.