Reply #25: She has a chance

[NewJerseyDem]

John Edwards, Mary Landrieu, Bill Nelson, Mark Pryor, and Blanche Lincoln have all won seats in the South by either beating and incumbent or filling an open seat since 1996. However, South Carolina is more conservative than LA, FL, AR or NC. Tenenbaum is a strong candidate and has done well in some polls. However, it will partly depend on who the republican nominee is. Tenenbaum is currenly though of as the superintendent of schools and republican will target her as a "tax and spend liberal" who "supports killing babies." So, it may depend on how successful republicans are at articulating that message.

I don't think it matters that Kerry is on the top of the ticket. Bush had coattails in 2002 and democrats got 44% of the vote in an open seat race in SC. Lindsey Graham was a stronger candidate than the 4 republicans who are running this time and Sanders, the democratic nominee, was a weaker candidate. Tenenbaum has won statewide twice before unlike Sanders who had only served in the state legislature. So, Tenenbaum will defintely make this race close and will probably get at least 45% of the vote, but it will be hard to get up to 50% but it is defintely possible.