Pennsylvania County-level Projections based on Demographic and Geopolitical Attributes

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Introduction
Prior to the Mississippi primary I projected which Democratic candidate would win in 40 of the state’s 81 counties. On election night all of those projections turned out to be true:

Now I have turned my attention to Pennsylvania. Below are my projections, methods, and a detailed breakdown of Pennsylvania’s geopolitical landscape.

Pennsylvania Projections


Methods
As with my Mississippi projections there are cut-off scores for each percentage above the state average in several different demographic categories. Obama strongholds are determined from high percentages of African Americans, high percentages of educated citizens, and low percentages of elderly citizens. Clinton strongholds are determined by high percentages of elderly, high percentages of whites, and low percentages of educated citizens. The cutoffs for Pennsylvania are as follows:

Clinton stronghold cut-offs:
Percent of Persons 65 Years or greater: more than 19%
Percent of Persons Who Are White: more than 98%
Percent of Persons 25 Years and Over with Bachelor's Degree or Higher: Less than 9%

Obama stronghold cut-offs:
Percent of Persons 25 Years and Over with Bachelor's Degree or Higher: More than 28%
Percent of Persons Who Are Black or African American: More than 16%

Cutoff justification
Some may question the racial cutoffs. Clinton has tended to do well among whites, at times very well. However, her white support has not been consistent, while Obama’s Black support has been both consistent and has gone to him by wide margins, thereby increasing the impact of this population. Obama has won the white vote in a number of states while Clinton lost the Black vote even in her home state(s) of Arkansas and New York.

I will note that the almost all the counties that do not meet cut-offs and for which I am not projecting for either candidate have demographic make-ups that favor Clinton. If she does well she should carry almost all of them and she will likely carry most of them. However, I am projecting that Obama will carry fewer counties but his counties are more populous.

Pennsylvania population centers


Obama strongholds

Pittsburgh


Pittsburgh is centrally located in Allegheny County. Allegheny county has an African American population of 13.3%, which is under the cutoff but it is also significantly educated with 28.3% with a Bachelors degree or higher.






Philadelphia


Philadelphia, in extreme southeastern Pennsylvania, is where Obama can run up the numbers. Philly is the 5th most populous city in the United States (1,517,550) and it has a massive African American population at 45.8%, the highest by far in the state.





Centre County is the third most educated county in Pennsylvania. State College, a borough in Centre County, is home to Penn State University. It has the lowest percentage of elderly citizens than any other county in the state.




Montgomery County (Philly suburbs) is the second highest educated county in Pennsylvania with 38.7% with a Bachelors degree or higher. It contains 750,097 people per the 2000 census.




Chester County is the most educated county in the state of Pennsylvania. At almost twice the state percentage, Chester county contains 42.5% of individuals with a Bachelors degree or higher. The county contains Cheyney University of Pennsylvania, the Exton and Downingtown Campuses of Delaware County Community College, Immaculata University, Lincoln University, Penn State Great Valley, the Exton Campus of Troy University, and West Chester University of Pennsylvania. Its population is one of the youngest in the state.




Dauphin County has an African American population of 18%. Dauphin county is home to Harrisburg, the state capital, which is 54.8% Black.




Delaware County has a sizable portion of Philly suburbs and as such has a significant African American population at 18.4% and is also well educated at 30% with a Bachelors or higher. It also includes the city of Chester, which is 75.7% Black.




Bucks County is another Philly suburban county in the Delaware River Valley. It is where George Washington crossed the Delaware River in December of 1776 on his way to one of the most significant battles in the Revolutionary war. It has few African Americans but is highly educated with 31.2% having a Bachelors degree or higher. It is also significantly young compared to the rest of the state.




Clinton Strongholds

I predict that Hillary will do well in a sizable majority of counties. For example, there are a number of rural counties with high concentrations of elderly voters, which have consistently supported Clinton. These counties have resulted in a number of projections for Hillary. Note that only the dark green counties are over my cut-off scores.




Lackawanna County


Lackawanna County has a significant percentage of elderly citizens (19.5% 65+) and is widely Caucasian (96.7). It is also less educated than the state average. This is a county that is in a rural area but it also has a decent population, it contains Scranton, where Hillary has campaigned recently.

Luzerne County


Luzerne County, which borders Lackawanna county to the southwest, also has a sizable population with many rural blue-collar characteristics. It is home to 313,020 people who are elderly (19.7% 65+), Caucasian (96.6%), and less educated (16.4% with a Bachelors or higher) than the state average.

There is no Latino population to speak of in Pennsylvania but there is a small concentration in the following three counties:




The Pennsylvania Primary is on Tuesday, April 22. The state has 188 delegates up for grabs. Recent polls have indicated an average lead of about 15% for Hillary Clinton but she will need to win by much larger margins than this to make a significant dent in Obama's delegate lead.





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