Reply #5: I was playing devil's advocate with my scenario...

[Spider Jerusalem]

being more generous to Hillary's chances than I honestly expect them to be, just to see how much of a margin she gains. The numbers don't move into her advantage without significant wins by large margins; giving Obama 60% in MS, 55% on NC, and Hillary 58% in every other contest results in a dead heat. (And I genuinely expect Obama to win Montana, Oregon, probably South Dakota, Puerto Rico, and possibly Indiana.

Most of the reasonable (I think) scenarios I can come up with show Hillary trailing by 100+ delegates, less supers (and in some cases 150) going into the convention.