Reply #8: Once again though we need to step through the flaws of this argument

[Gore1FL]

1> The process is set up in a way to represent Democrats from across the nation. Delegates are proportioned to Democratic votes in the last three elections and electoral votes
as shown here:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D-Alloc.phtml

The big state Blue state argument has already been accounted for in that proportion.

2> Now more than ever, all 50 states matter. The 50-states is part of the DNC program since 2005, and has shown to be a sound model with the pickup of the house and Senate in the very first election since its implementation.

Here is the DNC policy:

The Democratic Party is committed to winning elections at every level in every region of the country, and we're getting started right now with a massive effort to fund organizers on the ground in every state.

The ultimate goal? An active, effective group of Democrats organized in every single precinct in the country.

http://www.democrats.org/a/party/a_50_state_strategy/

3> Knowing that all states are impiortant, and know that delegates are distributed to their electoral votes and record in Democratic elections we see what is truly amazing about the 100-175 pledged delegate lead Obama takes to the convention: Even with winning Red states as part of of the states he has won, Obma has still has managed to win what can only be viewed as an insurmountable lead due to the limited number of remaining contests, especially considering a majority of those likely to fall in his column.

4> One cannot base the outcome of the general election on primary wins. This can be seen by loking at the Survey USA polls and electoral maps. Currently those maps show Obama beating McCain 280 to 258 in the general election, and Clinton beating McCain 276 to 262.

http://www.surveyusa.com/

5> Further analysis makes this even more interesting. By taking states that McCain only leads Obama by ONLY 3 points, the following "Red" states become battleground states:
FL, NE, NC, SC, TX, and VA which put a total of 102 Red state electors in play. If you increase the margin to 5%, you can add six total electors from ND and SD.
That looks like Obama can win more than enough of the big battleground states.

6> There is no historical precedent, and no current compelling reason, especially in light of the above, for Super Delegates to overturn the expensive contests of the primary/caucus season, neglecting the efforts of the campaign volunteers, the candidates and staff to install the second place candidate who trails at the convention by a minimum of 12% of the total super delegate count.

Sorry, in light of the above, there is absolutely no reason to assume Obama's back is against the wall in PA. He could lose the state by 25% in the nomination and lose it altogether in the General election, and still handily win both.

No realistic scenario exists for Clinton to win the nomination. No realistic scenario exists for Obama to lose the General.