Reply #3: Whoa, I just found this link when I was Googling . . .

[Lex]

http://www.federalreview.com/2005/07/why-not-allyson-duncan-for-supreme.htm

"Hard core partisan liberal DrFrankLives of The Stinging-Nettle makes a terrific case for President Bush to appoint 4th Circuit Judge Allyson Duncan to Justice O'Connor's spot on the ultimate bench. He argues that she is not such a hard right activist that would offend Democrats but that she is also "no liberal in wolf's clothing," pointing out that she worked with Clarence Thomas at the EEOC.

DrFrankLives may be right. She may indeed be a reasonably acceptable conservative who won't be a polarizing figure and will be a good, consensus pick. But she could also be a David Souter, without a history of written opinions from which to determine her fundamental judicial temperament. Is she a strict constructionist? While she has been a Republican for some time, I suspect that only those close to her and maybe Clarence Thomas know how conservative she really is. But at a time when Alberto Gonzales is one of the leading candidates, what's the danger to conservatives of picking a black, female judge who may be as "moderate" as Gonzales but might be more conservative on issues such as the second amendment or abortion? And while some more conservative groups are already gearing up their opposition to Gonzales, it would take them a while to figure out what to do about Duncan. If she turns out more liberal than expected, Bush can be blamed for taking the risk, but not for actively opposing the further right elements of the base.

And if you are playing the numbers game and trying to figure out what constituencies will be appropriately impressed, you'll have the first black female on the Supreme Court, and she'll be a Republican appointment (of course, the GOP hasn't gotten as much mileage out of the first black female Secretary of State as Pres. Clinton did from the first female). Then, the GOP can go more conservative for Rehnquist's seat by picking hispanic Emilio Garza or a woman, Edith Jones. Heck, he might even go for the twofer and follow Allyson Duncan with Janice Rogers Brown. I can already see the Vote Republican ads running on TV One and BET."