ARG, we love you, but Kerry leading 48%-45% is NOT a tie.

[TruthIsAll]

It sickens me whenever a lead is referred to as a TIE. I know all about MOE, but I also know that a 3 point-spread is VERY significant.

In fact, based on this poll, Kerry has an 84% probability of winning if the election were held today, assuming we have a good, unbiased, random sample of the electorate.

The American Research Group, along with Zogby, is a top-notch firm.
But this time they dropped the ball. Kerry is winning by 48-45%.

If we consider the other/undecided 7%, and assume that Kerry gets 2/3 of this group (as challengers often do) then....

Kerry wins 53%-47%.

Some tie.

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http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

All voters Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar

Bush 44% 45% 45% 44% 45% 44% 43% 42%
Kerry 47% 46% 49% 47% 46% 45% 48% 48%
Nader 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2%
Undecided 7% 6% 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8%
1005 registered voters, October 2-4,
MOE ± 3 percentage points

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied among all voters nationwide, with Kerry at 48% and Bush at 45%. With Ralph Nader on the ballot, Kerry is at 47%, Bush is at 44%, and Nader is at 2%. Among likely voters, Kerry is at 47% and Bush is at 46% in a two-way ballot and Kerry is at 46% and Bush is at 46%, with Nader at 2%, in a three-way ballot. See the results among registered voters from the October 2-4 survey at 2004 Presidential Ballot.

TIA: This is real significant:
Bush Job Approval Ratings
10/4/04 Approve Disapprove Undecided

Overall 45% 47% 8% <<<FORTY-FIVE? BUSH IS TOAST!
Economy 40% 53% 7%


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/