Reply #7: The Kerry trend is up with independent pollsters. Link.

[TruthIsAll]

The corporate pollsters (Gallup, Newsweek, Time, etc.) have Bush ahead by 8-12%. The Indies have the race tied. Believe them.

See my post from yesterday:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x837238


To answer your questions:
The 14% probability is based on the latest state polls, from which I derive Kerry's expected EV using 5000 Monte Carlo simulations.

Look at the decline in Kerry's EV. from an expected 330 to his current 247. He needs 270.

With 330 EV, his prob is near 100%.

With 270 EV, his prob is slightly higher than 50% (since he has the advantage of the high EV states).

With 247 EV his prob drops to 14%.

Makes sense, no?

Look at the graphs. They tell the whole story.