Chuck Todd's.... "What if game!"

[aaaaaa5a]

Obama's coalition is much stronger that it is given credit for.


Snip... from MSNBC's first read.

*** The “What if…” game: We’ve devoted a lot of attention the three-legged stool of support that Obama received from African Americans, Hispanics, and voters 18 to 29. NBC’s Ana Maria Arumi projects what would have happened if you had removed one of those legs. When Arumi re-ran the numbers to eliminate all voters under 30, the only states that switched into the McCain column were the narrowly won states of Indiana and North Carolina. If there were no Latinos voting, both New Mexico and Indiana would have switched into the McCain column. However, in the make-believe world where African Americans wouldn't have voted, Obama would have still won most of the states that he won -- but McCain would have taken the swing states of Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Those 107 electoral votes would have then been enough to flip the race. The most important thing to take away from this little experiment: Obama's coalition was much broader than the conventional wisdom suggests. (Never mind the cynics among us who may now send all these "young voters did it" press releases into their junk email folder.)


http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/default.aspx?p=7