Reply #61: Iowa 15 percent?

[iowapeacechief]

You don't understand the Iowa process if you think 15 percent is a statewide "vote" somehow. Viability happens precinct by precinct. Any of the candidates can win a particular precinct or fail to be viable depending on whose supporters show up and how they choose to commit or shift.

As an Iowan who has taken part in every caucus, I assure you most participants don't choose based on polls. From my experience, most aren't particularly influenced by strategies or instructions from campaigns, either.

The caucus is less a vote (win/lose) than a fast, usually friendly, multi-party negotiation (win/win). Unlike a one-shot secret ballot, the caucus process encourages voting one's hopes, at least the first time. If things don't go your way in the first "alignment", you get a chance to "realign" with a viable group (one gaining the 15 percent minimum). The process requires public disclosure (Wow--these are my neighbors, and this is what they think?!) and then grants permission for second chances. This encourages "a-ha" moments and motivated bargaining.

As a Kucinich supporter, I agree with the others who say it's not at all clear that we should move to Dean (and, yes, it makes more sense for Dean backers to move our way, especially if their defection doesn't cost their Dean group). It's also an option to form an Undecided group, thus preserving prerogatives for future conventions as well as denying caucus support to other candidates and sending a "none of the above" message.

As Bill Clinton observed in Iowa last August, we "fall in love" with a candidate for the caucus and "fall in line" with the nominee for the general election.

Dan Clark
Muscatine, Iowa