Reply #4: Party affiliations can be misleading

[Awsi Dooger]

In the South, especially, where so many elderly registered Democrats have voted nothing but straight Republican for decades. In Oklahoma, for example, there is a considerable registration edge for Democrats but we don't even dream of contesting the state in presidential terms.

Still, I study poll results and agree the methodology is flawed, partially due to new technology like Caller ID. The response percentage is considerably less than it was a decade or more ago. IMO, the sample size is far too low and the supposed 3-4 point margin for error is glorified bullshit.

My pet theory is PAN, or Partisan Adjustment Number. I treat each state individually and analyze how actual voting results differ from final polls, in presidential and senate elections. When there is a distinct trend that indicates Georgia, for example, always sways several points more Republican than polls suggest, I adjust future Georgia polls accordingly. Right now I have Georgia 4 1/2 points more Republican than base. It's not a finished product due to limited number of election results, but incredible how many states differ in one direction EVERY time, yet no one every mentions it in the mainstream media.