Reply #54: They mean something, just not everything

[jobycom]

It's hard to measure the EC because state polls are less frequent and less accurate.

But the campaign doesn't begin until the conventions, and in most elections the lead flips at the conventions, and the real race begins. McCain and Obama get 40% of the vote just by showing up. That other 20% decides the election, and in recent elections, at least half of that has voted Republican. That means at least half of them are looking for a reason to do so again. Hopefully they won't find it, and with the economy as it is, they probably won't.

But take it from a Clinton supporter--polls right now don't prove what will happen when the election starts. And don't confuse your conviction over Obama for his actual abilities. You can really, really love the man, and he can still lose. Trust me on that one, I've got decades of broken hearts over election results--primary and general.

So you can be certain of the outcome all you want. I hope you're right. I also pray to the gods I don't believe in that Obama does not share your certainty. As for McCain--every Republican that has won since 1980 has been considered a joke at some point just short of the election, excluding incumbents.

So I'm going to keep working as though we are ten points down and we need every last vote we can scrounge. If I feel foolish on election day, I'll be a happy fool.