Reply #3: My early analysis...maybe a bit generous to Kerry but not much

[featherman]

My approach is past actual vote with historical and demographic trends supported by (or adjusted to) current multiple state census and polling data analysis. According to this model, 1992 was a kind of watershed election for party identification and that the parties split into culturally distinct geographic regions of power.

The DEM strongholds are the Pacific States (HI, CA, OR, WA), Upper Midwest (IL, MI, WI, MN, IA), and the Northeast/Mid Atlantic (DC, MD, WV, PA, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, NH, VT, ME). This three region coalition of 22 states (inc DC) was a winning 270 EV’s in 2000 but represents a smaller 264 EV's this year It needs 6 more EV’s in 2004 for a majority. All of these states have voted DEM for the past three elections (with the fatal exception of WV and NH in 2000). Bush leads in none at this point this year although some are close.

Opposed is the GOP base: AK, ID, UT, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KA, OK, TX, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, IN. Essentially much of the Confederacy, the Plains, and the Mountain States: 18 states with 151 EV's.

Up for grabs and depending on effort and money are the Swing States which are basically the group of states that have voted DEM 1-3 times of the past three elections. Most share a common border with both a GOP and DEM base state and some are trending DEM and some GOP: Southwest Swing (NV, CO, AZ, NM) Midwest Swing (MO, OH, KY) and Southern Swing (TN, AR, LA, FL). 11 states with 112 votes. (There are some anomalies like MT and GA that voted DEM in 1992 but are not included since they seem solidly GOP now).

Bush's big problem, then, is that I doubt he can make much headway with the core DEM 22 against a competitive, well funded candidate and with a weakened Nader candidacy. In the end, it is my opinion that all will vote DEM, some more closely than others, for 264 EVs.

Caveats:
This model requires level playing field (matched spending and effort, no Kerry scandal, no effective October surprise, etc).
I attribute most of the closeness on the 2000 vote in OR, IA, MN, WI, PA and the loss of WV and NH to a combination of above average Nader strength in all those states and a somewhat depressed DEM turnout (Clinton scandal, media-caricatured Gore, apparently harmless "compassionate conservative" Bush, shrinking Gore finances, unopposed NRA effort, local issues, etc)

My call at this early date (assuming the level playing field):
Kerry gets his 22 “base” for 264 plus NV, AZ, NM, MO, OH, FL = 342
Bush gets his 18 “base” for 151 plus CO, AR, LA, TN, KY = 196

Popular Vote: Kerry 51%, Bush 46%, Nader, Libertarian, & other 3%