Reply #14: The key will be in modeling in the new voters.

[grantcart]

PPP was by far the best in Wisconsin in predicting the crossover factor. I would hate to bet against them in this case. The also tend to have larger poll samples.

Also there is another factor here that has completely escaped polling, as it really is a one off event and that is what percentage of fence sitters and Clinton sympathizers will vote for Obama (or simply stay home) becuase although they may support Clinton have decided that it is not helpful to continue. If only 3-4 out of 100 feel that way it would have a dramatic effect. I do not think that polling would pick up such a sensitive feeling in the populace.

I am still holding out for a small Obama win.


What is not at question is the quality of your outstanding work and a very effective presentation.


Please do a follow up afterwards so we can see who was closest.


Great work.