Reply #12: Dean's problem

[BeyondGeography]

is that he has offended three people who are capable of hitting back hard and they will: Kerry, Gephardt and Lieberman.

Now Dean supporters will say he has "offended" them because he is beating them, and that's partly true. But the Dean supporters' continued inability to accept the downside of his tactics; i.e. mocking the very nature of these lifetime Democrats' commitment to the party, baffles me. He has created real animosity, and he will be on the top of the attack chart in Iowa for the next two weeks.

They will hit him on his tax policy (Edwards will also clean up there), his tendency to have to explain himself whenever he makes a foreign policy statement, and they will question HIS loyalty to the party, given his implication that his supporters are non-transferable. Kucinich may even jump in and mention the continued lies about being the only antiwar candidate. There will be a steady drumbeat about his qualifications and electability, and it will come from all sides.

And how will Dean counter all of this? It's hard for me to see how he does it on substance. He ran a DLC governorship in Vermont, a fiscal conservative who, apart from civil unions, really can't point to much that separates him from the pack as a progressive. So he'll probably have to lash out at some point, which will only lose him more support.

Now, sitting in New Hampshire and avoiding all this mess is Wes Clark, who will be able to devote his attention to connecting with voters there, passing Kerry for second place and positioning himself as the anti-Dean. As a Clark supporter, the decision to sit out Iowa looks better and better to me, because the Hawkeye State is just going to turn into a Howard Hatefest.

If Howard survives all of this, he will have posted a well-earned victory. I still wouldn't consider it the best result for our party and our ability to win in November. Not by a longshot.