Texas delegates math. Obama wins regardless of how you slice it.

[DerekJ]

Some HRC supporters have voiced their concern that the prima-caucus system is unfair because of how the delegates are allocated. And that delegate allocation doesn’t take into consideration the amount of voters in each contest (primary versus caucus).
So I decided that I will create a hypothetical scenario, where delegates are apportioned according to the number of voters in each contest instead of being fixed at 65% of the delegates for the primary, and 35% for the caucus. I wanted to see who wins in this case.

What we know (AKA: The Givens)

According to this ; the total number of voters in the primary is approx. 2.8 million.

According to this ; The total number of caucus goes are over 1 million. I will put it at 1.1 million for approximation (if you repeat the below calculation assuming only 1 million instead of 1.1 million you will get the exact same conclusion at the end).

The total delegates for Texas are 193.

The current status quo gives you 126 delegates for the primary (about 65% of the total delegates), and 67 delegates for the caucus (about 35%).

You are saying that this system is unfair to Hillary because of the difference in the number for each of the contests.
Fine, we will do a hypothetical scenario where the delegates are apportioned according to the number of voters in each contest, and let’s see who wins.

Now let’s do some simple math.

Apportioning the delegates to reflect the number of voters in each contest

The total number of voters is 3.9 million (2.8 + 1.1).

The ratio of the primary voters to the total is (2.8/3.9) * 100 = is 71.7%. I will approximate that to 72% in favor of Hillary.

The ratio of the caucus voters to the total would be in this case 28% (again approximated in favor of Hillary)

The total number of delegates is 193.

In our new system the number of delegates for the primary should be 72% of the delegates instead of 65%. That gives us 139 delegates out of the 193.

Thus, the caucus delegates are 54 (193 - 139).

139 + 54 = 193, so the total delegate numbers don’t change, but how it’s allocated is now different to reflect the ratio of the primary voters to the caucus voters, to make it “fair” for Hillary.

So now 139 delegates for the primaries, and 54 delegates for the caucus

The primary delegates according to our new system

Hillary won 65 delegates of 126 delegates in the official system or 52%. (This is heavily approximated in favor of Hillary)

Thus; Obama won 48% of the delegates.

Let’s carry this forward to our new number of 139 delegates.

Hillary in this case wins 72 delegates instead of the initial 65 delegates (52% of 139 delegates).

Obama wins 67 delegates (48% of 141 delegates)

So now Hillary has won 72 delegates, Obama has 67 in our hypothetical system giving Hillary an extra 1 delegate compared tothan the official system (72 – 67 = 5, instead of 65-61 = 4)

Now the caucus delegates

We have 54 delegates left for the caucus in our hypothetical system instead of 67.

If the current projections stands; Obama wins 38 delegates, and Hillary wins 29 out of 67 with the official system.

That’s 57% Obama (I will give him only 56%, again favoring Hillary in the approximation heavily)

Thus Hillary have 44%.

Now let’s carry this forward to our new number which is 54 delegates.

Obama gets 30 delegates out of 54 (56% of 54 delegates).

Hillary wins 24 delegates (54 -30).

So in our hypothetical system, Obama wins 30 delegates to Hillary’s 24. Making Hillary gain 3 more delegates delegates (30 – 24 = 6, instead of 38 – 29 = 9)

Summing it all up

In the hypothetical system:
Primary: O: 67, H: 72
Caucus: O: 30, H: 24

Total Obama: 97
Total Hillary: 96

Obama still wins albeit with only 1 delegate

If I didn't favor Hillary in the approximation Obama still ends up wining with 2 to 3 delegates.

Feel free to correct me.

Edit to fix link