Reply #6: Anderson was a progressive candidate - he took votes from Carter.

[yardwork]

That helped Reagan win in 1980.

This doesn't remind me of 1980. At that time, everybody thought Carter had done a poor job. People weren't surprised when Reagan won. (In retrospect, after learning about Poppy Bush's machinations and Iran-Contra, Carter was set up, but that's a different thread.)

This is very different. This time, we've got about one-third of the country strongly pro-Bush and nothing will change their minds.

It reminds me a little more of 1972. At that time, a lot of people were very angry with Nixon over the war in Vietnam and information about dirty deals that was starting to emerge. Nixon was reelected anyway, but ended up impeached over things he had done prior to the election (and the subsequent cover-up).

I think that this election could go that way. Chimpy could be reelected, but if he is, the dirt will continue to trickle out, even if Congress is still controlled by Republicans.

Every election is different, though. It's difficult to predict based on the past.