Map of my Mississippi county level projection based on demographic characteristics

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Four factors were considered in my projections: Percentage of elderly individuals (65+), percentage of Blacks, percentage of whites, and percentage of individuals with a Bachelors degree or higher. The data was drawn from the 2000 US census.

Percentages were considered significant based on the following cut-offs:

50% or greater Black concentration
80% or greater white concentration
30% or greater with a Bachelors degree or higher
16% or greater persons 65 years and over

Obama does well in the western part of the state due to massive Black concentrations. He also picks up Jasper, Kemper, Noxubee, and Clay counties in eastern Mississippi due to 50% plus Black concentrations. He does well in Madison (North Jackson suburbs), Lafayette (home of Ole Miss), and Oktibbeha (home of Mississippi State University) counties due to meeting the 30% or greater higher educational cutoff. Look for Obama to run up his numbers particularly in populous Hinds county (urban Jackson) which does not meet the higher educational cutoff (but almost does) and meets the Black population cutoff with 65.9%.

Clinton does well in the northeast and southeastern portions of the state due to high white population percentages. In Harrison county (Gulfport and Biloxi), which has the highest persons per square mile concentration in the state (326 Persons/Sq Mile), Clinton could run up her numbers and I believe the county is favorable to her, although it did not meet any of the cutoffs. She can also run up her numbers in DeSoto County which contains the highly populated Memphis suburbs.

East Jackson suburb county of Rankin looks to be a crucial battleground as it is both more educated and younger and at the same time significantly Caucasian.



http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77