Fun thread: Predict how many people will show up to my Texas precinct caucus!

[crispini]

I am a Texas precinct chair. I am trying to guess this right now. Your guess is as good as mine. Join the fun! Let's all guess! I will post the results on the day after the election because I'm sure as heck going to a party and get drunk after my caucus. The person who gets the closest to the actual number of voters that show up, without going over the number, is the winner!

Winner gets .... A NEW CAR! .... um no... a PONY.... no ... a lollipop. No. A lock of my hair which I am tearing out. :crazy:

Here is some basic information about my precinct:

- About 3000 voters on the poll book in the precinct. Some of them are probably in the process of "expiring" off the rolls, because....
- 2527 have voted in at least 1 general election since 1996
- 427 have voted in at least 1 democratic primary and 1 general election since 1996
- 143 people voted in Democratic primary in 2004
- In the 2006 governor's race, we had:
---- 559 votes for Chris Bell
---- 505 votes for Rick Perry (Republican)
---- 376 votes for Kinky Friedman (I)
---- 166 votes for Carole Strayhorn (I)
---- 11 votes for the Libertarian candidate
Edited to add: In 2004, we had 515 votes for John Kerry.

- I have already 144 people from my precinct vote in the Democratic primary in 6 days of early voting. There are four more days to go.

Edited to add: I had 10 people show up for the caucus in 2006.

If all the Bell people and all the Kinky people vote, I'm guessing I might get 900 who vote D in the primary. But how many of them will show up at the caucus on election day?

Edited again to add: For purposes of the game, you must post a number, not a percentage. I will be doing enough math on election day and will refuse to do any more math for a week after that. :D

Only one entry per person, decisions of the judges is final. Do not fold, spindle, or mutilate. Contents may explode under pressure.