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The New DU. Reply #10: Non-Incumbents for both parties are 50%.
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ieoeja
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Thu Nov-29-07 11:27 AM
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| 10. Non-Incumbents for both parties are 50%. |
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For years in which their was no incumbent Democrat, and ignoring '76 in which nobody won, the Iowa caucus has a 50% record of picking the winner (3 out of 6).
Year - Iowa Winner - Eventual Nominee
72 - Muskie - McGovern
76 - uncommitted (Carter 2nd) - Carter
84 - Mondale - Mondale
88 - Gephardt - Dukakis
92 - Harkin - Clinton
00 - Gore - Gore
04 - Kerry - Kerry
Ditto for Republicans where non-incumbent winners became the eventual nominee 2 out of 4 times.
Year - Iowa Winner - Eventual Nominee
80 - Bush - Reagan
88 - Dole - Bush
96 - Dole - Dole
00 - Bush - Bush
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