Reply #16: I suspect you won't like this:

[AtomicKitten]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_clinton_vs_giuliani_thompson

Election 2008: Clinton vs. Giuliani & Thompson
Clinton Trails Giuliani, Barely Leads Thompson
Friday, November 23, 2007

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) enjoying a modest four-point lead of 46% to 42% over Senator Hillary Clinton (D) (see crosstabs). That’s the second time in the last three Rasmussen Reports election polls that Giuliani has held the advantage over Clinton.

The survey also found Clinton with a very slight edge over former Senator Fred Thompson (R), 46% to 44%. Both Republicans are doing better against Clinton than they did in the previous Rasmussen Reports survey.

The former First Lady has recently been the subject of more sustained and concerted attacks from other Democratic candidates seeking their party’s nomination. In addition to losing ground in the national match-ups with Giuliani and Thompson, Clinton now trails four Republican hopefuls in the pivotal state of Florida.

Since April, Giuliani has led Clinton several times in Rasmussen Reports national polling, but usually by no more than three percentage points. In mid-August he led by seven, but by September he was trailing. On October 9 Giuliani trailed Clinton 41% to 48%. In the next poll he managed to edge out Clinton by two points, but on November 11 he was again trailing, by six (see history).

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Clinton and Giuliani have both been within two points of the 45% mark for thirteen consecutive polls dating back to May 1, 2007. The candidates have been within two points of each other on eight of those thirteen surveys.

Currently, the three-poll rolling average shows Clinton and Giuliani tied at 45%. Clinton had held the advantage in the last four updates of the three-poll rolling average. At the beginning of the campaign, Giuliani had the advantage--during the first eight sets of three-poll averages, Giuliani was “ahead” in seven and tied with Clinton in the eighth.

It’s worth noting that on individual polls with a four point margin of sampling error, Giuliani has been within four points of the 45% mark for fifteen consecutive surveys dating back to March. Clinton has been within four points of the 45% mark on nineteen of twenty surveys dating back to December.

Thompson too can be thankful for the new Rasmussen Reports survey. Since we started surveying the match-up in March, the actor-politician has led Clinton only twice, and by the skin of his teeth. Clinton's greater leads have usually been modest, although on October 9 she led Thompson by fifteen points, 52% to 37%. On October 23 Thompson lagged by just two points, then fell six points behind in early November. Now he again trails by just two points.

A look at the three-poll rolling average for this match-up shows Clinton at 45% or 46% in the early match-ups moving up to the 48% to 50% range for the last four sets of results. Thompson started out at 44% or 45% for the first sets of data and has been in the 40% to 43% range more recently.

Currently, in the three poll rolling average, Clinton leads Thompson 47% to 43%. That’s an improvement for Thompson who trailed by an average of eight in the previous three polls.

Clinton remains the frontrunner in the battle for the Democratic nomination with leads in the national polls, New Hampshire, Florida, and South Carolina. But, in the first state to vote, Iowa, the New York Senator is in a toss-up with Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. A Rasmussen Reports analysis of the race explored the importance of the Iowa caucuses.

Giuliani remains the GOP frontrunner in national polls, but trails in many early states. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney and Thompson are tied for the lead in South Carolina while Giuliani leads in the Florida Primary.

Clinton is now viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 52% of voters nationwide. Forty percent (40%) offer Very Unfavorable opinion of the Democratic frontrunner.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 50%, unfavorably by 46%. Thompson is viewed favorably by 40%, unfavorably by 45%, with 16% still uncertain of their view of him.

Forty-four percent (44%) of voters say they will definitely vote against Clinton if she is on the ballot in 2008. Forty percent (40%) say the same about Giuliani and Thompson.