Reply #21: That poll is excellent for Obama, but doesn't really show an obama gain

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Apples to apples.

The last Washington Post poll had Obama at 29. This one has him at 30.

30 is a lot higher than the last non Washington Post poll, but the Post poll is an odd one.... when it showed Obama at 29 last time it was way out of line with the other polls, so we'll see how this one holds up.

The Post series may be the most accurate... they seem to have a different likely caucus-goer model that might be better than others. It's a tight screen they use... 33% of the people in their sample have shaken hands or spoken with a candidate personally.

If the Post methodology is correct than Obama has always been higher in Iowa than the other polls showed, but if that's the case he has not surged... just remained at a high level.