Reply #6: I wonder if Iowa will be that important...

[Jai4WKC08]

I used to think it would be more important than ever. Now I'm not so sure.

It's a matter of perspective really. For Edwards, Iowa is essential. I think he needs to win it to stay in the running. Obama needs to win Iowa, or come in second behind Edwards (in other words, beat Clinton), to win NH. And I think he has to do both to remain in the race. Hillary can lose both Iowa and NH and still take NY and CA, and probably FL. Those are the big states with by far the most delegates (assuming FL gets to keep its delegates). If she wins those, Iowa and NH might not matter.

I think if Iowa ends up a three-way split with no decisive winner, it's the same as if Hillary had won because she'll go on to take NH and the bigger states to follow. Of course, a lot of that depends on how the media plays it. If they want Clinton to win the nomination (and I think they do), they may downplay any loss by Hillary unless it's a major stomping.